Tuesday, November 12, 2024

日本郵船 NYK 9101 NPNYY


Avoid Red Sea, takes more time


Transition from Corona Container Rates






1円の円安


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5KJOeVY9LE&ab_channel=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E9%83%B5%E8%88%B9%E5%BA%83%E5%A0%B1%E3%82%B0%E3%83%AB%E3%83%BC%E3%83%97_NYKLineOfficial

Cash Flow (1億は10の8乗円)




https://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/9101.T?term=1w



 社長 


Doesn't bode well for VALE (Iron Ore Projected Shipments Down)

https://www.nyk.com/english/news/2023/20230710_02.html

https://www.nyk.com/english/news/2024/20241031_02.html

Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Trump re-elected in '24, S&P jumps 2%. Implications.

Deja Vu, but no surprise to betting markets, Trump gives his '24 Election victory speech today with Harris not holding the votes that Democrats won in 2020. 

2024 Marks the Return of Trump, 78

At 78, Trump is older, and more militant, and will benefit from a Republican Senate and possibly also the House. It is a startling rebuke for Democrats, who, like in 2016, seemed close to a victory, but somehow without margins of safety that would have allowed a victory. This time around, in contrast to 2016, the Economist correctly predicted the election along the lines of betting markets - a Trump victory.

Celebrity endorsements and control of the news cycled assured that Trump voters were treated to a spectacle in the run-up to Nov. 5th. The world's richest man, Billionaire Elon Musk, rallied supporters around Trump, a lesser billionaire.

Implications:

Geopolitics:

  • Will the President follow through on assurances to wind down the Russia-Ukrainian conflict?
    • North Korea has sent fighters to support Russia following Putin-Kim meetings.
  • China, fearing perceived or actual new US tariffs, may elect to boost its domestic tariffs, which could bode well for their economy. 
    • Which sectors of China's economy will receive this boost?
  • Israeli rioters took to the streets in Tel Aviv calling for an end to war with Hizbu'llah and Hamas and a return of remaining hostages. 
    • This follows Israel's first direct & open strike in the region since targeting an Iraqi reactor in 1981. At the time Israel backed Iran against Iraq in that conflict.
    • Since that time, Israel has countered Hizbu'llah and Hamas in the region without directly attacking Iran.
US Economy and Stock Markets
  • S&P Stock rallied over 2% Wednesday.
    • TSLA up 13%+
    • Ford up ~3%
  • NVIDIA overtakes AAPL as most valuable company by market Cap as AI investors focus on it, while SuperMicro flounders due to governance concerns.
  • TMTG flounders due to its loss-making status as a proxy for Trump's comeback and it appears to not even be a legitimate business, merely another marker in Trump's bid to remain in the headlines -- in that sense, perhaps unsurprisingly and following Trump's pattern, it continues to fail as a business but succeed as a promotional tool.
  • BABA down 3%

Image - Bloomberg '24

New York Times Elector Map


California District 16, former Mayor Sam Liccardo leads Evan Low in current polling.
Liccardo leads Low 60/40 in District 16
Low upbeat, applauds voters for turnout



SF Mayoral Race - Laurie leads




References: 

https://www.ktvu.com/election/sam-liccardo-evan-low-house-district-16-results




Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Canyon CF SL 8 Headset Bearings from Acros (is44)

I came across what I believe to be the bearing set provider for Canyon Ultimate (and other road models)


https://acros-components.com/en/headsets/is44/is44-bearingset-for-canyon

 
is44 bearing set

CF SL 8 - Deutsche Version


部品三個の図面





Monday, November 4, 2024

$1M Musk Giveaway apparently "Not Random" according to Defense Team

 At the intersection of considering political donations as "free speech", election interference and shameless promotion lies the story of Musk's $1M a day giveaway. In essence, the candidates have become the product and this particular ploy the promotion to gain influence over financially desperate voters. It certainly drew my attention as much as the promise of watching Zuck face off with Musk in the ring. 

Very similar to bread and circuses of the Roman times but updated to bring the rabble under order and to vote against their interests. When a candidate must pay people to vote for him, something is amiss.

Article: https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3285172/elon-musks-us1-million-voter-giveaway-winners-are-not-picked-random-lawyer-says



Saturday, October 26, 2024

Hobie 20 Crew Bungie through-cross-bar design

 

End Cap holds the stopper knot for bungie which runs to opposite endcap pully and back through exit hole (end cap in hand)

Hobie 20 Travler Maintenance. Harken Data Mismatch my case.

Upon removing my traveler, I found that this information was incorrect for my case. 

Installed Torlon/Delrin Balls are 8mm for me, not 6mm

End Caps cracked on both sides, but still retail balls. 
Replacement parts $22 for both sides - quite a profit margin for Harken: 

  • Data from Harken - I found ball size incorrect. 
  • 22mm Track
  • Qty 21, 6mm Delrin Balls  (Mine are closer to ~8mm diameter)
  • Harken Traveler https://gallery.harken.com/gallery/travelersquickserviceonline.pdf





Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Home Metal Cutting Lathe Search - Titanium Cutting. Global Economic Outlook prior to '24 US Election. "AI" Misunderstood.

 Much to ponder on as I look for small metal cutting lathes on Craigslist and peruse news sources about the global economy in advance of the USA election '24.

First to the metal cutting lathes, there seems to be many used options with some home hobbyists favoring EMCO from Austria.

I have 28mm Titanium barstock to thread, M8 down the center axis and M6 down the transverse axis for Jasmine's (Hobie 20) rudder fittings. The Hobie Assembly is outlined here: I need to fixture and drill the barstock, drill and tap and also cut/singulate the two pieces, one for each rudder.

Tiller End Cap from Ti Barstock

The US is in the midst of a media spending spike in the run-up to the '24 election. 2 Wars rage at different hot spots, the traditional mid-East with Israel on the one hand and Iran backed Hamas spanning Gaza to Lebannon. Then the ongoing border war from Ukraine into Nuclear-armed Russia.

Tech companies are struggling to adopt AI in meaningful ways as researcher Hinton wins a Physics prize for Computer Science and applied Linear Algebra work.

I take a moment to study how the ChatGPT "generative" system works following along with these excellent explanations by 3 Blue 1 Brown here: https://www.youtube.com/@3blue1brown

The essence of LLM appears to me as simple "Brute Force" minimization of a "Cost Function" where local minima are identified by finite difference methods, but on a grand scale.

The minima identified are particularly striking when paired with human language as the output, essentially next word predictions applied repeatedly to build up a corpus of text. (eg a high-tech plagiarized paper submitted by an unethical & grinning HS student.)

There is a random aspect due to feeding models such an incredible quantity of parameters (1.5+ Billion parameters) and allowing the model to chug probability distribution matrices in order to "generate" the next word in the sequence. Linear order minimization is apparently not a feature of human language,  (Eagles that fly swim, swim describes Eagles despite being on opposite ends of the statement)

Using brute force is the last logical approach when the fundamentals of a processes of human cognition elude us -- it seems incredible wasteful, both time and energy wise, and that these higher order vectors can be "plugged and chugged" at all is a testament to improving GPU and Semiconductor technology as a whole.