Deja Vu, but no surprise to betting markets, Trump gives his '24 Election victory speech today with Harris not holding the votes that Democrats won in 2020.
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| 2024 Marks the Return of Trump, 78 |
At 78, Trump is older, and more militant, and will benefit from a Republican Senate and possibly also the House. It is a startling rebuke for Democrats, who, like in 2016, seemed close to a victory, but somehow without margins of safety that would have allowed a victory. This time around, in contrast to 2016, the Economist correctly predicted the election along the lines of betting markets - a Trump victory.
Celebrity endorsements and control of the news cycled assured that Trump voters were treated to a spectacle in the run-up to Nov. 5th. The world's richest man, Billionaire Elon Musk, rallied supporters around Trump, a lesser billionaire.
Implications:
Geopolitics:
- Will the President follow through on assurances to wind down the Russia-Ukrainian conflict?
- North Korea has sent fighters to support Russia following Putin-Kim meetings.
- China, fearing perceived or actual new US tariffs, may elect to boost its domestic tariffs, which could bode well for their economy.
- Which sectors of China's economy will receive this boost?
- Israeli rioters took to the streets in Tel Aviv calling for an end to war with Hizbu'llah and Hamas and a return of remaining hostages.
- This follows Israel's first direct & open strike in the region since targeting an Iraqi reactor in 1981. At the time Israel backed Iran against Iraq in that conflict.
- Since that time, Israel has countered Hizbu'llah and Hamas in the region without directly attacking Iran.
US Economy and Stock Markets
- S&P Stock rallied over 2% Wednesday.
- NVIDIA overtakes AAPL as most valuable company by market Cap as AI investors focus on it, while SuperMicro flounders due to governance concerns.
- TMTG flounders due to its loss-making status as a proxy for Trump's comeback and it appears to not even be a legitimate business, merely another marker in Trump's bid to remain in the headlines -- in that sense, perhaps unsurprisingly and following Trump's pattern, it continues to fail as a business but succeed as a promotional tool.
- BABA down 3%
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| New York Times Elector Map |
California District 16, former Mayor Sam Liccardo leads Evan Low in current polling.  |
Liccardo leads Low 60/40 in District 16
 | Low upbeat, applauds voters for turnout
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SF Mayoral Race - Laurie leads
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References:
https://www.ktvu.com/election/sam-liccardo-evan-low-house-district-16-results
