Hobie 20 Crew Bungie through-cross-bar design

 

End Cap holds the stopper knot for bungie which runs to opposite endcap pully and back through exit hole (end cap in hand)

Hobie 20 Travler Maintenance. Harken Data Mismatch my case.

Upon removing my traveler, I found that this information was incorrect for my case. 

Installed Torlon/Delrin Balls are 8mm for me, not 6mm

End Caps cracked on both sides, but still retail balls. 

Replacement parts $22 for both sides - quite a profit margin for Harken: 

https://www.harken.com/en/shop/traveler-cars/small-boat-traveler-car-end-caps-set-of-2/?srsltid=AfmBOooY3uksi4BQPUGKc2a464mJs-tGiOOxAS3m4r5EJjEatVx-qTId

• Data from Harken - I found ball size incorrect. 
• 22mm Track
• Qty 21, 6mm Delrin Balls  (Mine are closer to ~8mm diameter)
• Harken Traveler https://gallery.harken.com/gallery/travelersquickserviceonline.pdf

Home Metal Cutting Lathe Search - Titanium Cutting. Global Economic Outlook prior to '24 US Election. "AI" Misunderstood.

 Much to ponder on as I look for small metal cutting lathes on Craigslist and peruse news sources about the global economy in advance of the USA election '24.

First to the metal cutting lathes, there seems to be many used options with some home hobbyists favoring EMCO from Austria.

I have 28mm Titanium barstock to thread, M8 down the center axis and M6 down the transverse axis for Jasmine's (Hobie 20) rudder fittings. The Hobie Assembly is outlined here: I need to fixture and drill the barstock, drill and tap and also cut/singulate the two pieces, one for each rudder.

Tiller End Cap from Ti Barstock

The US is in the midst of a media spending spike in the run-up to the '24 election. 2 Wars rage at different hot spots, the traditional mid-East with Israel on the one hand and Iran backed Hamas spanning Gaza to Lebannon. Then the ongoing border war from Ukraine into Nuclear-armed Russia.

Tech companies are struggling to adopt AI in meaningful ways as researcher Hinton wins a Physics prize for Computer Science and applied Linear Algebra work.

I take a moment to study how the ChatGPT "generative" system works following along with these excellent explanations by 3 Blue 1 Brown here: https://www.youtube.com/@3blue1brown

The essence of LLM appears to me as simple "Brute Force" minimization of a "Cost Function" where local minima are identified by finite difference methods, but on a grand scale.

The minima identified are particularly striking when paired with human language as the output, essentially next word predictions applied repeatedly to build up a corpus of text. (eg a high-tech plagiarized paper submitted by an unethical & grinning HS student.)

There is a random aspect due to feeding models such an incredible quantity of parameters (1.5+ Billion parameters) and allowing the model to chug probability distribution matrices in order to "generate" the next word in the sequence. Linear order minimization is apparently not a feature of human language,  (Eagles that fly swim, swim describes Eagles despite being on opposite ends of the statement)

Using brute force is the last logical approach when the fundamentals of a processes of human cognition elude us -- it seems incredible wasteful, both time and energy wise, and that these higher order vectors can be "plugged and chugged" at all is a testament to improving GPU and Semiconductor technology as a whole.

  

IYC Remaining Races

IYC Race Director Skip and team have done an excellent job in organizing races - here are the remaining races for 2024. See you on the water!

 https://drive.google.com/file/d/144kR7n9oKvdPFyaoOooioFcV6jj2eJ7D/view

IFR Checkride Notes 2024

 I was fortunate to have a firm but fair FAA DPE and the following was my experience:

• How to maintain your IFR currency. (6 approaches in preceding 6 months, 6 mo. grace period, IPC thereafter)
• Aircraft log review, Student log review for long IFR crosscountry
• Plan flight to KSBP from KRHV
• Cessna 172P Weight and Balance (360lbs in the front seats).
• Reference Winds Aloft to calculate time in flight and fuel burn (13 gallons rounded up)
• Retrieve Weather, discuss options to depart, weather on arrival, need for alternates (1-2-3 rule)
• Review basic ok to turn altitude if no ODP or SID (400ft AGL, 200ft/nm climb)

• 

  Important to know when you can turn (at what altitude) when not specified in an ODP, SID

  
  
• I got this question on turn altitude wrong. Here is the link to the 400ft, 35ft above DER, 200ft/nm figures: https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/aim_html/chap5_section_2.html
• Low IFR Chart, what is frequency above the Center Box? (You listen to FSS talk on 112.6, your talk on 122.1 and let them know your are transmitting on PXN VOR, ensure audio panel is set to NAV/COM) 

• 

  Speak on 122.1, you receive on 112.6 the Panoche VOR

  
  
  
• Weather Cameras https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-121.81972,37.1461,10/airport/RHV/details/trends
• https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/1473/how-do-i-contact-flight-service-while-in-flight
• Query on Military Training routes
• Query on VOR change over change over distances and service volumes.
• Why are some airports green? (IFR procedures into those airports) Useful in planning alternates
• Rule of 3 https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/regulations_policies/handbooks_manuals/aviation/instrument_procedures_handbook/FAA-H-8083-16B_Chapter_3.pdf
• Asked about MOCA vs MEA
• Icing Questions - what are 3 types of icing and which is worst? (Clear due to being invisible before a certain severity)
• What is de-icing vs. anti-icing? (de-icing would be boots, don't activate until you actually have icing) Anti would be prevention systems
• Checkride: 3 approaches, 1 hold, 1 partial panel, 2 non-precision and 1 precision, fly VFR flight following and make sure ATC know that you are with examiner for your checkride (I didn't) for priority in routing. I was vectored out of hold to 2nd and 3rd approaches.
• Unusual Attitudes a nose high and nose low scenario.

October S&P 500 Snapshot - Which way will S&P move prior to and following the '24 USA Election?

 

Snapshot of FXAIX Today

The S&P 500, as measured by proxy FXAIX dipped to the $180 level and tested as high as $200+ within the last week. That is a 10% gyration in mere days. Investors have swayed from optimism due to Fed rate cuts and pessimism due to expanding war in the Middle East (Israel vs. Iran proxies Hamas & Hezbollah in Lebannon).

When Trump was elected in 2016, FXAIX was valued at ~$65. Contrast that to today, Oct 02, where the same fund is valued close to $198+. That is a 14% CAGR over the 8 year period. 4 of those 8 years were during the Trump administration, and 4 under Biden. The S&P appears more volatile in 2024 than in 2016 with a higher standard deviation (roughly twice) of $4 vs $2. However normalized to the average, the volatility in 2016 is higher 2.5% vs 2% over that trailing 63 days.

Compare 63 consecutive days in 2016 spanning the election to 63 trailing days in 2024 ending Oct 02, 2024

2016 FXAIX was relatively stable, even over the surprise election Trump result

Macroeconomic Factors

• Record S&P and Mega Cap valuations (AAPL at 3 Trillion Market Cap)
• Record US Debt with no plan to curb (Dollar devaluation on horizon?)
• Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon conflicts
• Nuclear proliferation
• Covid and post Covid Inflation
• Investors seeking havens in higher dividend stocks, alternative assets (eg Bitcoin/gold)
• China stimulus begins to take effect in late September, early October 2024
• China population decline, housing supply glut
• US housing un-affordability, massive spike in cost of living due to inflation
• FED announcements to lower rates, but amid persistent inflation
• US manufacturer trend away from China Contract Manufacturing, which began 3-5 years ago over Covid.

Hobie 20 Trampoline "Buttons" - Where to Find

Jasmine is getting a much needed refit after her adventures at this year's Hog Island Race. I was curious to see that an entrepreneur had taken the initiative to make replacement "buttons" for the tramp-lacing. It looks like this company below is out of Switzerland and even has a Stainless steel "beefy" version! 

https://www.h2o-sensations.com/en/beams-accessories/1097-lacing-buttons-stainless-steel-121845mm-8215000869287.html

In other news, Jasmine's covers roughly fit and serve the purpose as towable trailer "yard" covers. I may need to modify these as I transition Jasmine to beach wheels for full beach launch capability.

Here is where I found my "trolly", a version of the "Cat Trax" called "Euro Trax".

https://www.cadkat.com/EUROTRAX_launching_trolley_for_catamarans.html

Quality appears good, very well though out for assembly, with long rolling delin bearings on an aluminium pole/shaft. Cradles somewhat customisable to different beach cats.

Jasmine with her new duds

Now I revisit how to rig a spinnaker pole as my last pole bracket (a Mac Monitor bracket repurposed) succomed to my initially poor design. My new design is to take a WindSurfer mast and to attach this clevis to the cross bar with a single M8 bolt (tapped the cross bar to accept). Next I need to fix pole rotation which I believe can be done with rigging to the tangs -- this system has yet to be tested!

Galvanic Corrosion of jib car track:

I need to locate a new track supplier - haven't had luck yet. For now, I'll simply slide the Jib slug fore of this corroded area:

Galvanic Corrosion - SUS to Aluminum with significant material loss

On the Porsche 924s:

I changed the oil on Big Red (Porsche 924s) and it came out a red colour -- this appears to be the effect of not driving her for a while in the last 1-2 years and the oil not getting a chance to pick up combustion products/soot which would blacken the synthetic oil. Also the fact that the oil was Mobil Synthetic, Costco special.

On Richmond Beer Cans:

I started to join in 1-2 beer can races despite the traffic up from S. Bay (which is a deal breaker moving forward unless I'm already in N. Bay). These are great tune-up sessions with a simple course out to South Hampton Shoal. Incidentally, the light house taken from South Hampton Shoal is here:

A beautiful St Francis YC asset! Who knew?

Richmond YC Wednesday night beer cans